Always ask yourself “And then what? How many steps am I picturing?”
Think through time — What do the consequences look like in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 Years?
Ask yourself how important parts of the ecosystem are likely to respond. How will your family deal with this? What will my coworkers likely do? What about my superiors?
Overthinking? This needs a tricky balance. The skill to acquire is the ability to realise when you are being overwhelmed and break your thought process there.